where a narrower gap between government bond yields is kindling fears that a recession is looming. The average S P 500 target from the 17 top Wall Street analysts is 2,947, a cnbc analysis shows. But it won't be strong earnings that drive the gains like this year, but rather multiple expansion, the firm said. "Despite these headline risks we believe that solid economic/EPS growth and benign recessionary risks will be sufficient to propel the market higher.". Credit, suisse 's new estimates represent an earnings growth rate.4 percent in 2019, versus the Street's consensus.8 percent growth this year, according to FactSet.
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Credit Suisse raised its year-end forecast for the S P 500 to 3,025 from 2,925.
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With the Fed on hold and a forex petrole trade deal in sight, that should be enough to lift the market despite the weaker earnings outlook. The firm says the reduced estimates are due to lower oil prices and large tech companies' worsening outlooks. More volatile ride, while Golub was upbeat on 2019 for the most part, he cautioned that the coming year could include more volatility and higher borrowing costs. "We expect earnings per share growth to decelerate from.5 percent in 2018.7 percent in 2019, largely the result of fading tax impacts, and is in-line with historical averages.". Federal Reserve and a possible recession. It would also be the stock market's best year since 2013.
The bank also noted low bond yields are implying a "much higher" market multiple. Provided by cnbc, the stock market proved Golub right, with the S P 500 rebounding to a record last week. Credit, suisse has published encouraging equity analysis in recent months. "The next 16-months will be particularly tricky for investors, with the threat of yield curve inversion, potentially disruptive midterm elections, and continued Fed tightening Golub wrote.
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